{
 "title": "What every launch since Sputnik shows",
 "url": "https://mcval.org/launches/findings",
 "asOf": "2026-10-06",
 "author": "McVal (https://mcval.org)",
 "licence": "Quote freely with a link to the finding. Underlying data: Launch Library 2 (The Space Devs), CelesTrak, GCAT by Jonathan McDowell (CC-BY).",
 "findings": [
  {
   "id": "europe-on-european-rockets",
   "url": "https://mcval.org/launches/findings#europe-on-european-rockets",
   "title": "Europe launches most of its satellites on American rockets",
   "headline": "8%",
   "text": "of the satellites registered to European countries and organisations in 2025 went up on a European rocket: 11 of 138. SpaceX launched 117 of them (85%).",
   "more": "Leaving out OneWeb, whose 600-plus satellites are registered to the UK and dominate some years, the share on European rockets was 36% from 2003 to 2012 (57 of 160), 17% from 2013 to 2019 and 13% from 2020 to 2025, when SpaceX carried 72%.",
   "method": "Counts satellites, not mass: many are small university and company satellites on SpaceX rideshares, while an Ariane carries a few large ones. European means registered by CelesTrak to a European country, ESA, EUMETSAT, Eutelsat or SES; European rockets are Ariane, Vega and Isar Aerospace's Spectrum. Soyuz flights from French Guiana count as not European.",
   "view": "https://mcval.org/launches/?p=asa,isar",
   "numbers": {
    "year": 2025,
    "onEuropeanRockets": 11,
    "europeanSatellites": 138,
    "onSpaceX": 117,
    "withoutOneWeb": {
     "2003-2012": [
      57,
      160
     ],
     "2013-2019": [
      34,
      196
     ],
     "2020-2025": [
      65,
      494
     ]
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "cold-war-record",
   "url": "https://mcval.org/launches/findings#cold-war-record",
   "title": "The Cold War launch record stood for 54 years",
   "headline": "1967 → 2021",
   "text": "In 1967 the world made 140 orbital launch attempts, 74 of them Soviet. No year beat that until 2021. Launches fell as low as 55 in 2004, then rose to 324 in 2025, 2.3 times the Cold War peak.",
   "method": "Orbital launch attempts of any outcome in each calendar year, from Launch Library 2; suborbital flights are left out.",
   "view": "https://mcval.org/launches/?p=ussr&tour=1",
   "numbers": {
    "peakYear": 1967,
    "peakLaunches": 140,
    "sovietThatYear": 74,
    "beatenIn": 2021,
    "lowYear": 2004,
    "lowLaunches": 55,
    "launches2025": 324
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "spacex-half-of-launches",
   "url": "https://mcval.org/launches/findings#spacex-half-of-launches",
   "title": "SpaceX flew half the world's launches in 2025",
   "headline": "50%",
   "text": "of all launches in 2025 were SpaceX's: 170 of 341. The world launched 341 times that year, against 63 in 2003.",
   "method": "Launch attempts of any outcome, from Launch Library 2, including crewed and test suborbital flights.",
   "view": "https://mcval.org/launches/?p=spx&tour=1",
   "numbers": {
    "year": 2025,
    "spacexLaunches": 170,
    "allLaunches": 341,
    "allLaunches2003": 63
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "starlink-majority",
   "url": "https://mcval.org/launches/findings#starlink-majority",
   "title": "More than half of all satellites in orbit are Starlinks",
   "headline": "56%",
   "text": "of the 20,038 satellites in Earth orbit on 6 October 2026 are Starlinks: 11,145.",
   "method": "Payloads in Earth orbit in CelesTrak's catalogue on that date, working or not; rocket stages and debris are not counted.",
   "view": "https://mcval.org/launches/?p=spx",
   "numbers": {
    "date": "2026-10-06",
    "starlinks": 11145,
    "satellitesInOrbit": 20038
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "satellites-in-orbit",
   "url": "https://mcval.org/launches/findings#satellites-in-orbit",
   "title": "Six times as many satellites in orbit as in 2003",
   "headline": "20,038",
   "text": "satellites in Earth orbit on 6 October 2026, against 3,231 at the start of 2003 and 5,419 at the start of 2020. 4,480 were launched in 2025 alone, against 83 in 2003.",
   "method": "Payloads in Earth orbit in CelesTrak's catalogue on each date.",
   "view": "https://mcval.org/launches/",
   "numbers": {
    "date": "2026-10-06",
    "satellitesInOrbit": 20038,
    "on2003_01_01": 3231,
    "on2020_01_01": 5419,
    "launched2025": 4480,
    "launched2003": 83
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "military-to-commercial",
   "url": "https://mcval.org/launches/findings#military-to-commercial",
   "title": "The military share of satellites fell from half to an eighth",
   "headline": "50% → 13%",
   "text": "of satellites in orbit were military or intelligence ones at the start of 2003, and 13% are now. Commercial ones went from 20% to 74%.",
   "method": "Who uses each satellite, from the operators in Jonathan McDowell's GCAT: defence if any operator is military; otherwise the class of its first operator.",
   "view": "https://mcval.org/launches/?s=d",
   "numbers": {
    "date": "2026-10-06",
    "defenceNow": 2617,
    "commercialNow": 14803,
    "inOrbitNow": 20038,
    "defence2003": 1619,
    "commercial2003": 651,
    "inOrbit2003": 3231
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "maiden-flights",
   "url": "https://mcval.org/launches/findings#maiden-flights",
   "title": "New rockets often fail on their first flight",
   "headline": "43%",
   "text": "of new rockets' first flights since 2003 failed: 29 of 68, against 4.8% of all orbital launches. Isar Aerospace's Spectrum was one, in March 2025; its second flight reached orbit.",
   "method": "The first orbital attempt of each new rocket. Versions of an existing rocket count as that rocket, so Falcon 9 Block 5, Ariane 64, PSLV-XL and Long March 7A are not new; Falcon Heavy and Delta IV Heavy are. The list of new rockets was checked by hand and is in findings.json. Partial failures count as failures. Starship counts from its first orbital attempt, flight 14 in September 2026; its earlier test flights were suborbital.",
   "view": "https://mcval.org/launches/?p=isar&tour=1",
   "numbers": {
    "since": 2003,
    "maidenFlights": 68,
    "maidenFailures": 29,
    "orbitalLaunches": 2831,
    "orbitalFailures": 137,
    "newRockets": [
     {
      "date": "2003-12-05",
      "rocket": "Strela",
      "launcher": "Khrunichev State Research and Production Space Center",
      "failed": false
     },
     {
      "date": "2004-12-21",
      "rocket": "Delta IV Heavy",
      "launcher": "Boeing",
      "failed": true
     },
     {
      "date": "2006-03-24",
      "rocket": "Falcon 1",
      "launcher": "SpaceX",
      "failed": true
     },
     {
      "date": "2008-08-16",
      "rocket": "Safir",
      "launcher": "Iranian Space Agency",
      "failed": true
     },
     {
      "date": "2009-04-05",
      "rocket": "Unha",
      "launcher": "Korean Committee of Space Technology",
      "failed": true
     },
     {
      "date": "2009-08-25",
      "rocket": "Naro-1",
      "launcher": "Korea Aerospace Research Institute",
      "failed": true
     },
     {
      "date": "2010-06-04",
      "rocket": "Falcon 9 v1.0",
      "launcher": "SpaceX",
      "failed": false
     },
     {
      "date": "2010-09-26",
      "rocket": "Minotaur IV",
      "launcher": "Orbital Sciences Corporation",
      "failed": false
     },
     {
      "date": "2012-02-13",
      "rocket": "Vega",
      "launcher": "European Space Agency",
      "failed": false
     },
     {
      "date": "2013-04-21",
      "rocket": "Antares 110",
      "launcher": "Orbital Sciences Corporation",
      "failed": false
     },
     {
      "date": "2013-09-14",
      "rocket": "Epsilon",
      "launcher": "Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency",
      "failed": false
     },
     {
      "date": "2013-09-25",
      "rocket": "Kuaizhou",
      "launcher": "China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation",
      "failed": false
     },
     {
      "date": "2014-07-09",
      "rocket": "Angara-1.2pp",
      "launcher": "Khrunichev State Research and Production Space Center",
      "failed": false
     },
     {
      "date": "2015-09-19",
      "rocket": "Long March 6",
      "launcher": "China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation",
      "failed": false
     },
     {
      "date": "2015-09-25",
      "rocket": "Long March 11",
      "launcher": "China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation",
      "failed": false
     },
     {
      "date": "2015-11-04",
      "rocket": "SPARK",
      "launcher": "Sandia National Laboratories",
      "failed": true
     },
     {
      "date": "2016-06-25",
      "rocket": "Long March 7 / YZ-1A",
      "launcher": "China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation",
      "failed": false
     },
     {
      "date": "2016-11-03",
      "rocket": "Long March 5 / YZ-2",
      "launcher": "China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation",
      "failed": false
     },
     {
      "date": "2017-01-14",
      "rocket": "SS-520-4",
      "launcher": "Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency",
      "failed": true
     },
     {
      "date": "2017-03-02",
      "rocket": "Kaituozhe-2",
      "launcher": "China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation",
      "failed": false
     },
     {
      "date": "2017-05-25",
      "rocket": "Electron",
      "launcher": "Rocket Lab",
      "failed": true
     },
     {
      "date": "2017-06-05",
      "rocket": "LVM-3",
      "launcher": "Indian Space Research Organization",
      "failed": false
     },
     {
      "date": "2017-07-27",
      "rocket": "Simorgh",
      "launcher": "Iranian Space Agency",
      "failed": true
     },
     {
      "date": "2018-02-06",
      "rocket": "Falcon Heavy",
      "launcher": "SpaceX",
      "failed": false
     },
     {
      "date": "2018-10-27",
      "rocket": "Zhuque-1",
      "launcher": "LandSpace",
      "failed": true
     },
     {
      "date": "2019-03-27",
      "rocket": "OS-M1",
      "launcher": "OneSpace",
      "failed": true
     },
     {
      "date": "2019-07-25",
      "rocket": "Hyperbola-1",
      "launcher": "i-Space",
      "failed": false
     },
     {
      "date": "2019-08-17",
      "rocket": "Smart Dragon 1",
      "launcher": "China Rocket Co. Ltd.",
      "failed": false
     },
     {
      "date": "2020-04-22",
      "rocket": "Qased",
      "launcher": "Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force",
      "failed": false
     },
     {
      "date": "2020-05-25",
      "rocket": "LauncherOne",
      "launcher": "Virgin Orbit",
      "failed": true
     },
     {
      "date": "2020-07-10",
      "rocket": "Kuaizhou 11",
      "launcher": "ExPace",
      "failed": true
     },
     {
      "date": "2020-09-12",
      "rocket": "Astra Rocket 3.1",
      "launcher": "Astra Space",
      "failed": true
     },
     {
      "date": "2020-11-07",
      "rocket": "Ceres-1",
      "launcher": "Galactic Energy",
      "failed": false
     },
     {
      "date": "2020-12-22",
      "rocket": "Long March 8",
      "launcher": "China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation",
      "failed": false
     },
     {
      "date": "2021-09-03",
      "rocket": "Firefly Alpha",
      "launcher": "Firefly Aerospace",
      "failed": true
     },
     {
      "date": "2021-10-21",
      "rocket": "Nuri",
      "launcher": "Korea Aerospace Research Institute",
      "failed": true
     },
     {
      "date": "2022-03-29",
      "rocket": "Long March 6A",
      "launcher": "China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation",
      "failed": false
     },
     {
      "date": "2022-07-27",
      "rocket": "Kinetica 1",
      "launcher": "CAS Space",
      "failed": false
     },
     {
      "date": "2022-08-07",
      "rocket": "SSLV",
      "launcher": "Indian Space Research Organization",
      "failed": true
     },
     {
      "date": "2022-11-16",
      "rocket": "SLS Block 1",
      "launcher": "National Aeronautics and Space Administration",
      "failed": false
     },
     {
      "date": "2022-12-09",
      "rocket": "Smart Dragon 3",
      "launcher": "China Rocket Co. Ltd.",
      "failed": false
     },
     {
      "date": "2022-12-14",
      "rocket": "Zhuque-2",
      "launcher": "LandSpace",
      "failed": true
     },
     {
      "date": "2023-01-10",
      "rocket": "RS1",
      "launcher": "Long Wall",
      "failed": true
     },
     {
      "date": "2023-03-04",
      "rocket": "Qaem 100",
      "launcher": "Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force",
      "failed": true
     },
     {
      "date": "2023-03-07",
      "rocket": "H3-22",
      "launcher": "Mitsubishi Heavy Industries",
      "failed": true
     },
     {
      "date": "2023-03-23",
      "rocket": "Terran 1",
      "launcher": "Relativity Space",
      "failed": true
     },
     {
      "date": "2023-04-02",
      "rocket": "Tianlong-2",
      "launcher": "Space Pioneer",
      "failed": false
     },
     {
      "date": "2023-05-30",
      "rocket": "Chollima-1",
      "launcher": "National Aerospace Development Administration",
      "failed": true
     },
     {
      "date": "2023-12-04",
      "rocket": "Mir (3 stage)",
      "launcher": "Agency for Defense Development",
      "failed": false
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-01-08",
      "rocket": "Vulcan VC2S",
      "launcher": "United Launch Alliance",
      "failed": false
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-01-11",
      "rocket": "Gravity-1",
      "launcher": "Orienspace Technology",
      "failed": false
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-03-13",
      "rocket": "KAIROS",
      "launcher": "Space One",
      "failed": true
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-07-09",
      "rocket": "Ariane 62",
      "launcher": "European Space Agency",
      "failed": false
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-11-30",
      "rocket": "Long March 12",
      "launcher": "China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation",
      "failed": false
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-01-16",
      "rocket": "New Glenn",
      "launcher": "Blue Origin",
      "failed": false
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-03-30",
      "rocket": "Spectrum",
      "launcher": "Isar Aerospace",
      "failed": true
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-07-29",
      "rocket": "Eris-1",
      "launcher": "Gilmour Space Technologies",
      "failed": true
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-12-03",
      "rocket": "Zhuque-3",
      "launcher": "LandSpace",
      "failed": false
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-12-23",
      "rocket": "HANBIT-Nano",
      "launcher": "Innospace",
      "failed": true
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-12-23",
      "rocket": "Long March 12A",
      "launcher": "China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation",
      "failed": false
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-01-17",
      "rocket": "Ceres-2",
      "launcher": "Galactic Energy",
      "failed": true
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-03-30",
      "rocket": "Kinetica 2",
      "launcher": "CAS Space",
      "failed": false
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-04-03",
      "rocket": "Tianlong-3",
      "launcher": "Space Pioneer",
      "failed": true
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-06-01",
      "rocket": "Long March 12B",
      "launcher": "China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation",
      "failed": false
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-07-10",
      "rocket": "Long March 10B",
      "launcher": "China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation",
      "failed": false
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "rocket": "Vikram-I",
      "launcher": "Skyroot Aerospace",
      "failed": false
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-09-01",
      "rocket": "Pallas-1",
      "launcher": "Galactic Energy",
      "failed": false
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-09-28",
      "rocket": "Starship",
      "launcher": "SpaceX",
      "failed": false
     }
    ]
   }
  }
 ]
}